We live in an evenly divided nation, and the past five presidential elections demonstrate that well with their extremely close outcomes, Bergbower, an associate professor at Indiana State University, said in an email to The Epoch Times. Comparing the most recent elections (2000-2020) to those in earlier periods (1960-1980), we find a striking decline in the proportion of bellwether counties, i.e., those with correct prediction in past elections. Her husband, a groundskeeper at an Army Reserve base, comes from a strongly Democratic family. The shift is evident when comparing current registrations with the 2016 numbers. When Republican Dr. Ted Bowlus defeated Democrat Joel Kuhlman in the 2016 election, it completed a single-party commission. The unhappiness and unsatisfactory conditions have spread similar to the way COVID-19 has, a truck driver by the name of Sam, who also was at Wee Willys, told The Epoch Times. Missouri fits this definition, as do six counties that have matched the national vote. The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high-scoring counties, they said. The Upper Mississippi River Valley and it [sic] surrounding area, in particular, appears to be an epicenter of these high-scoring bellwethers., Teresa Shepherd, resident of the Indiana bellwether county of Vigo, in front of her daughters house in Seelyville, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. We need to make ourselves energy independent again. But you cant winem all, Beggs, 80, told The Epoch Times. Terry Titchner, 70, said hes voting for Biden because he doesnt trust Trump. But its still anyones game when taking into account the 1.2 million unaffiliated or other-party voters and the roughly 70 percent voter turnout. Finally, numerical bellwether scores for all 3142 counties in the US were computed based upon the number of . TERRE HAUTE, Ind.For well over a century, voters in Vigo County, Indiana, have backed the winner in almost every presidential election. Im not even sure what direction were going.. The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election. Natural gas is a key ingredient in the process used to make the nitrogen-based fertilizer used on crops such as corn and wheat. Fitch, who grew up in foster homes and went on to put himself through college, has owned and run the Summit Fireside Lodge and Grill for 32 years. Since he became a Christian in the mid-1990s, he said hes used his moral compass to determine his vote. Every time you pass a law, the government becomes more oppressive. Even wearing a mask, youre still not certain. Sam said he has noticed that the farmers arent happy, and their kids have to take a side job in the factory because of the economic situation. I trust the system implicitly, he said. We find that bellwether success is almost entirely a matter of random coin tosses in multiple counties over time to create an appearance of predictive power that is a matter of chance. In a video posted to Twitter on Thursday, Trump 2020 Campaign Senior Advisor for Strategy Steve Cortes took a deep dive into the 2020 election data regarding President Donald Trump's overwhelmingly dominant performance in the United States' bellwether counties, adding to the statistical improbability of a Joe Biden electoral victory. That doesnt make sense to me, Tisdell said. Epoch Times: "Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020" Find UFOs, The Apocalypse, New World Order, Political Analysis, Alternative Health, Armageddon, Conspiracies, Prophecies, Spirituality, Home Schooling, Home Mortgages and more, in: Rumor Mill News Reading Room, Current Archive Since Trump got voted in, it was when I started getting into politics, Tisdell told The Epoch Times while sitting in his garage. What happened to our Democratic Party? They are not even the regular masks to filter it out. She thinks economic distress from COVID-19 will fuel more unrest. While these are the top bellwether counties, there are many more that are considered to be predictive. We have to figure out a way to control fuel prices. But, he said, he also doesnt complain. She sees the economy, trade, China, and the Middle East peace deal as top issues. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. Your email address will not be published. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. The Democrats who are vying for that partys nomination are Morgan Harper, Traci Johnson, and Tim Ryan, who has been serving in Congress for the past 2o years, or 10 consecutive terms. What you need to know, summarized in one email. It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. Fifteen percent is a very large gap to close, he said. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck-to-neck. In new research, Bernard Grofman and Haotian Chen argue that the evidence shows that this claim is laughable. Things have been bad for so long, they dont care.. The bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large swath of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. Both Jacobs and her husband switched to Republican and Ive never looked back, she said. All the negativity, and just pure anger for this one person in office I have never seen it before. Its too big. The northern portion of the county, in towns such as Rossford and Northwood, is the blue-collar and working-class crowd and Perrysburg is home to upscale housing developments. Hawker told The Epoch Times he voted for Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, and if he wouldve been re-elected, the country wouldnt be facing the problems they are having now. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). We believe that there are two main reasons. We need election reform.. But thats not the picture I look at. County residents had voted for the presidential candidate who won the White House for nearly 60 years, since Democrat Lyndon Johnson won in 1964, according to the Ottawa County Board of Elections. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. Not as large or as well-known as its more eastern cousin, Luzerne County, where much of the election attention has been focused, Elk County is just as accurate in predicting who will be the next commander in chief. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. That was a blow to the area, Miller said about Peloton ending its plans for a $400 million project. When there was, we were making money pulling people out of ditches.. John Hawker, a 74-year-old Port Clinton resident who grew up in Toledo, was sitting at the end of the bar and also weighed in on the state of affairs. Wood Countyaswith Ottawa County, its neighbor to the east along Lake Erieis filled with farm fields, is home to many military veterans (about 7,000 of them), and hasnt seen much expansion or change since the late 1970s or early 1980s. One such claim is that Trumps victories in 2020 in the vast bulk of the counties that had previously been labeled as bellwethers proved that Trump really won the election and was denied the victory because of fraud. Itll be interesting to see who wins Sen. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. He cares about the American people.. 2020: Trump - 54.12%, Biden - 45.20%. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. Our politicians need to look on both sides of the fence and work together. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. He loves his country to the point where he wants it to do well.. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. Here, a farming operation is pictured in Bowling Green, Ohio in Wood County, a bellwether county in America's Heartland experiencing problems such as inflation and high gas prices, affecting every day life. Republican Gov. In 2016, Pennsylvania itself was wrenched out of its 24-year run as a Democratic sure bet when Donald Trump cleared just over 44,000 more votes than Hillary Clinton and took the states prized 20 electoral votes. I kind of keep in my bubble. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck and neck. The expansion for First Solar was made possible by changes in the U.S. Corporate Tax Policy during the Trump administration. Port Clinton, Ohio. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of. Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP American Politics and Policy, nor the London School of Economics. Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. He said hes concerned but hopeful for the future. Given the global context of Russias invasion of Ukraine, they believe higher gas prices and inflation is coming, and theyre not happy about it. I dont think he has done that bad of a job. In the northwest corner of Ohio sits a county with an enviable bellwether reputationonly twice over the past 60 years voting against the presidential winner. Martin thinks the Democrats could have chosen a better candidate than Biden. Miller doesnt hesitate to say that he isnt happy with the current state of affairs and he doesnt know who hell vote for in the next presidential election. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. This year, the local courthouse in Ridgway has been bustling with new voter registrations and party affiliation changes. This year, after seeing the country shut down amid the pandemic, and seeing riots break out in many cities, I just think its time that I should start voting, she said. Will Ohios Wood County Continue to Be a Reliable Bellwether Indicator? There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. The researchers also mapped all American counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scorethat is their record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. He said Vigo County is fairly evenly divided between those who identify as Republicans and those who identify as Democrats. If you own a business and you have a bad summer where it rains every weekend, youre out of luck.. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. And this years election is unlike any other, in which mail-in voting has become the norm, injecting an air of uncertainty into a year already full of upheaval. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. If riots break out in our area and we dont have firearms, how are we going to protect our family and ourselves?. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. These counties also disproportionately came from the Midwest and the Northeast. That is a very good thing to have. Longtime Bowling Green resident Doug Miller, a conservative and Donald Trump supporter who works as a chief operating officer for a heavy-duty trucking company in nearby Fremont, said the company, which was heavily affected during the pandemic, is still navigating challenges. "If. We use cookies on this site to understand how you use our content, and to give you the best browsing experience. The majority of rural America are our hard-working, blue-collar workers. We just couldnt believe that Trump had lost.. Rarely are we really stuck with people in leadership that are fairly moderate. Nothing has changed regarding the date of the May 3 primary election, Baumgardner said. . Since its founding in 1853 it has only got 13 out of the 37 extant elections right. Logistically, its a disaster. Like all-or nothing bellwethers, counties that closely tracked the election for 12 consecutive elections failed to continue that form for a 13th time. Richard Zulch, an Army veteran who served in Vietnam as a combat engineer from 1969 through 1971 and is the quartermaster for Veterans of Foreign Wars Post 4811 in Bowling Green, said he has been able to see the political landscape from both sides of the fence. They've been dubbed "bellwether counties" and until this year,. There are three counties that voted with the eventual winner for each of the past 10 elections,. Swept up in unproven voter fraud claims, the Shasta County Board of Supervisors has upended the county's election process, canceling its contract with . The issues most important to Fannin include the economy, border security, and the virus. Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. As part of The Epoch Times Association, Inc., a nonprofit organization we stand outside of political interests and the pursuit of profit, to educate readers about today's most critical issues . One major planned project in Wood County pulled outPeloton, an exercise bike and interactive exercise equipment manufacturer. Washington state's Clallam County was the outlier, backing Joe Biden in a state he won by more than 19 points. This is a high farming community.. Shepherds family, on the other hand, wasnt much interested in politics. Thats probably the biggest fear right now when I talk to people. The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election. Trump is a person who just couldnt accept defeat, Ellithorpe said.